Who are these rogueurs and why they determine the cost of bitcoin

Every day more and more investors agree that the invention of bitcoin led to the creation of a new asset class.

Whether the price of bitcoin will grow in the same way as last year is an open question, but it is obvious that crypto-currencies can not so easily disappear in one day. Despite this, many world-renowned economists and Nobel laureates still do not understand the value of bitcoin.

With the creation of a new asset class, the complex question of assessing their fundamental base value arises. Profit and loss statements can be used to theoretically estimate the traditional means of saving, but for bitcoin such data are not available. In recent years, several different schemes for assessing the currency have appeared, but price forecasts based on traditional analysis usually end in complete failure.

In the community, from time to time, the theory is discussed that the trailers have the greatest impact on the bitcoin price, and transactional turnover is not so important. But for some reason they do not pay much attention to it.

In early 2014, this point of view was devoted to the whole article, although the concept in it was stated theoretically, and not proved with the use of empirical data. The main idea is that the price of bitcoin (in US dollars or any other fiat currency) as a whole will be determined by the desire of the holders to redeem it from circulation.

To better understand this theory, you need to delve deeper into the strategy of the chopper and find out who it is.

No, it’s more than a typo in the word holder. And no, this is not an abbreviation of hodl, which stands for holding on for dear life («grabbing for life with all my might» or «holding on to the last»).

Hodl is a meme that appeared in a drunken post on the Bitcointalk.org forum back in late 2013, when the price of bitcoin collapsed amid news related to the regulation of crypto currency in China.

The essence of the post was in the priority of long-term storage of bitcoins as opposed to day trading, and the meme became a kind of motto for the owners of crypto-currencies, who are ready to hold their assets in any market situation.

And now the traitors are not going to leave. They are the main support group for collapses of 25% per day or 50% per month. Moreover, on such landslides they only make purchases.

Chodlers believe in the value of bitcoin on an almost religious level. Some of them keep bitcoin for political reasons (they would prefer that it is the world’s main currency, not the US dollar or another fiat), others simply see in it the inevitable future of the financial system. The Hodgers keep it because they are convinced that bitcoin is digital gold. They understand the value of a censorship-free form of electronic money in an increasingly digital world.

In other words, the crocheters are the basis for the cost of bitcoin. As soon as a sufficient number of people sell their stocks, there will remain the trailers, who will want to buy even more and increase the volume of their assets.

A real holler will never sell bitcoins. Instead, he will patiently wait for the day when their use will become ubiquitous, and daily transactions will be carried out through an open digital payment system. A well-known meme based on the scene from the «Matrix» says that by that time the trailers will no longer need to sell their bitcoins, because there simply will not be a reason to bring them to the Fiat.

A long-term logger and PayPal board member Wencesz Casares argues that bitcoin will eventually become a global, policy-independent standard of value and trust.

In the long term, it is the cholesterics that have the strongest impact on the cost of bitcoin, but is there a way to measure their collective impact? The answer is no.

The key problem is that it is difficult to detect tracers in a blockhouse. It is unclear whether someone is a real tractor until a couple of serious crashes happen.

Co-founder FundStrat Tom Lee compares the total number of addresses of bitcoins and the average amount of transactions (in dollars) between these addresses to determine the common user base. But, again, not all of them are tracers.

Last year, a LendEDU study was published, which indicated that conventional Holders would sell for about $ 200,000 for bitcoins, but they were Holders, not Rollers. Perhaps many of those who participated in the survey sold their bitcoins during one of the sharp price drops over the last month. Price jumps, as a rule, show who the real hoopler is, and who is just a Holder.

Each short-term price bubble of bitcoin attracts new users to this asset, and some of these can turn into choppers. Therefore, instead of looking for information that can be used to predict the daily price movements of the most popular crypto currency, it is better to listen to the advice of a drunk beatcoin enthusiast of the 2013 model and just keep to the last.

Based on the article «The Fundamental», «Bitcoin Valuation Metric That Determines», «The Cryptocurrency’s Price Moves» by Kayla Torpy